Journal of Ecology and Environment

pISSN 2287-8327 eISSN 2288-1220


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Published online November 22, 2017

Journal of Ecology and Environment (2017) 41:38

Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity

Seon Uk Park1, Kyung Ah Koo2, Changwan Seo3 and Seungbum Hong4

Environmental Science & Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Division of Natural Resources Conservation, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, Republic of Korea; Division of Ecological Survey and Research, National Institute of Ecology, Chungnam, Republic of Korea; Division of Ecological Assessment, National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon, Republic of Korea

Correspondence to:Kyung Ah Koo

Received: July 9, 2017; Accepted: October 27, 2017

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.



Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production.>


We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area.>


This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

Keywords: Ardisia japonica ; Climate change; Species distribution model; Dispersal; Korean Peninsula

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Journal of Ecology and Environment

pISSN 2287-8327 eISSN 2288-1220